Putin doesn’t want peace. It’s time to escalate the war

 In the deadly game of poker being played between Washington and Moscow over Ukraine, US President Donald Trump should understand that he demonstrably holds the upper hand.

At every level, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called “special military operation” to subjugate Ukraine to Moscow’s will has been an abject failure. During nearly four years of bitter bloodshed, Russia’s territorial gains have been minimal, while its military has suffered catastrophic losses, both in terms of men and equipment. Meanwhile, the economic consequences of the war have had a devastating impact; petrol queues have now become a regular fixture for ordinary Russians.

Even Putin’s initial justification for embarking on his campaign of conquest against Ukraine, that Moscow needed to protect itself from further Western encroachment, has blown up in his face.

Far from reducing the unity of the Nato alliance, Russia’s unprovoked military aggression has persuaded two previously neutral European countries – Sweden and Finland – to abandon this decades-long commitment and join the West’s military alliance. Nato’s border with Russia has thus significantly expanded, making it far easier for the alliance to defend itself against future acts of Russian aggression.

In such circumstances, it is hardly surprising that Putin jumped at the chance of engaging in yet another round of direct talks with Trump. The Kremlin’s overture came shortly after Trump dropped heavy hints that he was giving serious consideration to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles, weaponry that could significantly enhance Ukraine’s military firepower at a time when Russian forces are already on the defensive.

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked after Trump’s two-hour telephone conversation with Putin, the Russian leader’s primary motivation in re-establishing a dialogue with the White House was simply that he was “afraid” of the likely impact supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks would have on the conflict.

Trump’s readiness to engage with Putin, even when it is perfectly clear the Russian leader has no genuine interest in accepting a ceasefire deal, has become one of the more baffling aspects of his presidency.

Even though Moscow has next-to-no chance of achieving its strategic objectives in Ukraine, Trump is still prepared to treat Putin as an equal.

Perhaps the American leader is in thrall to the image of supreme power that Putin likes to project, even if it has been achieved through the brutal suppression of opposition voices. Or Trump may base his approach on the more practical realpolitik argument that it is in America’s long-term interests to persuade the Russians to ditch their alliance with China in return for a more pragmatic relationship with Washington.

Whatever the real reason is for Trump’s blind spot regarding Putin, the result is that Trump constantly finds himself in the position where he is raising expectations about what Putin will deliver in terms of ending hostilities in Ukraine, only to find himself being sorely disappointed.

Trump’s belated recognition that it would be a “waste of time” to press ahead with his planned summit with Putin in Budapest is therefore merely the latest example of Trump having his hopes of a Ukraine ceasefire dashed by Putin’s intransigence. Having initially insisted that his latest phone call with Putin was “very productive”, Trump has now concluded that there is little prospect of Moscow changing its unpalatable demands for ending the conflict, with the Kremlin continuing to stick to its demand that it be allowed to seize large tracts of eastern Ukraine as well as limiting Kyiv’s ambitions to forge closer ties with the West.

This is not the first time Trump has been badly let down by Putin’s duplicity. It was a similar story back in August when the US leader met Putin in Alaska, and believed he had achieved a breakthrough in his quest for a ceasefire, one that never materialised.

After this latest setback, with the White House insisting there are “no plans” for a Trump-Putin summit to take place “in the immediate future”, the time has surely come for Trump to realise that he has the upper hand over his Russian adversary, and act accordingly.

Putin’s continued opposition to a ceasefire is only possible because Trump keeps letting him off the hook by agreeing to more talks. It would be a very different story, if, instead of keeping a line open to the Kremlin, Trump approved the delivery of Tomahawk missiles and other high-end weaponry to Ukraine, a move that could have disastrous implications for the Russian war effort.

One of the reasons Putin now finds himself on the ropes is because of the recent success the Ukrainians have enjoyed targeting key Russian infrastructure, such as oil refineries. One attack this week saw UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles destroy a Russian chemical plant making gunpowder and rocket fuel.

The damage Russia would suffer if Trump gave the go ahead for Tomahawks to be delivered to Kyiv would be even greater, giving Putin little option but to accept Trump’s ceasefire terms or face a devastating defeat.